Normally, around about now, shipping companies announce a series of blank sailings which coincides with the Chinese New Year.
It’s one of the most important holidays in China and large numbers of workers go home to be with their families. So many people are on the move that it is said to be the world largest annual human migration.
However, COVID is a factor this year.
Shipping Australia understands that, because of COVID, this year’s travel season (while still massive) will be more restricted and will take place over a longer period. So there might not be as big a shut-down as there normally is in China at this time of the year.
Meanwhile, consumer nations are, well, consuming and the demand for goods, and therefore for cargo shipping services, has massively increased in volume.
Respected maritime analyst Sea-Intelligence has reviewed the situation. Shipping companies normally reduce capacity at this time to match shipping supply to normally lower demand. However, this is not a normal year and there is no consensus forecast on the impact on production of Chinese New Year, this time around.
Demand for shipping services is booming with reports of shippers finding it difficult to book slots, the container ship demolition market virtually drying up and the inactive container ship fleet being returned to work.
As of Friday, 01 January 2021 (a mere six weeks from Chinese New Year), ocean carriers had only announced five blank sailings on the trans-Pacific trade and seven on the Asia-Europe trade. Last year there were 88 combined blank sailings, Sea-Intelligence reports, and the year before there were 67 announced blank sailings.
“At present, CNY reductions are hardly visible for 2021… At present, 2021 CNY blank sailings are far below previous years, and if the relative capacity reductions of previous years should be reached, carriers would need to blank 37-41 sailings on Asia-NAWC, and 12-15 sailing on Asia-North America East Coast (NAEC). On Asia-North Europe (NEUR), an additional 14-17 sailings would have to be blanked to reach previous relative levels, while on Asia-Mediterranean (MED), an additional 4-6 sailings would have to be blanked. It is not possible to predict the optimal level of blank sailings, but it is clear that the carriers are currently scheduled to blank far less than in previous years, and if they are to reach the level of previous years, a raft of blank sailings would have to be announced very soon,” Sea-Intelligence writes.
