As the multi-sided Middle East conflict that began in late February rumbles on into its fourth month, both the Iranian and American blockades are in still in effect, there is a small amount of traffic flow moving through Omani and Iranian coastal waters.
The US Navy has begun an air-based monitoring programme for ships interested in crossing the Strait of Hormuz via the Omani coast, although it should be noted that this is not an escort or convoy operation. Ships that do choose to transit the Strait via this route do so at their own risk. Transiting via the Iranian route is thought to be more risky as ships on this route have been much more likely to be attacked by Iran, even if they have coordinated with Iran prior to transit. The United States has sanctioned the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and so any engagement with the PGSA is prohibited for entities that wish to do business in the United States.
Ships that have successfully transited the Strait via Omani coastal waters have done so with caution, transiting at night with radar and lights off.
Trade media are reporting that 40, formerly stranded, non-Iranian-linked vessels have exited the Persian Gulf in the last few weeks, bringing total departures since March to 142. Overall traffic through Hormuz fell in May to the lowest number since the conflict started.
Security situation
The current security situation remains more than extremely challenging, with one naval source characterising shipping as being subject to a “massive threat”. U.S. forces have been attacking targets in the south of Iran and has disabled ships to maintain a blockade of Iranian ports and coastal waters. Iran has struck a ship off the coast of Iraq and the international airport at Kuwait. Attacks on merchant ships have reportedly been repulsed by U.S. forces.
Iran has threatened further attacks, the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and threats to close the Bab El Mandeb, a narrow waterway between the Arabian peninsula and Africa. The threat of sea mines is plausible and cannot be ruled out following reports by elements of the U.S. Navy and Omani fishers, although these have not been verified by reputable independent parties.
Non-belligerent military forces report that, since the beginning of the war, at least 35 commercial vessels have been hit in the Persian Gulf.
Operations
Operational status of ports in the region can vary by berth, terminal, port and country.
UAE: Operations at the ports of Fujairah and Khor Fakkan continue without interruption, although some berths may be closed for maintenance work. A three-week waiting time has been reported for dry bulk, general cargo, and Ro-Ro vessels. The Khor Fakkan Container Terminal (UAE east coast outside of the Gulf) is operational but a waiting time of four weeks must be factored in for bulk, dry bulk, general cargo, and Ro-Ro vessels. The terminals in Jebel Ali, Hamriyah, Sharjah, Khalifa, Abu Dhabi, and Ruwais are also reported to be functional, however, there is “massive” local GPS disruptions off Fujairah (UAE east coast).
Kuwait: all ports are fully operational but entry permits for vessels arriving from Iraqi waters are suspended. As noted earlier, the international airport was attacked.
Oman: all Omani ports are fully operational. Ongoing GPS disruption is reported.
Saudi Arabia: all ports are operating at full capacity without restrictions or warnings. Air availability varies by city and airline.
Bahrain: shipping traffic in Bahrain has reportedly resumed. Crew changes are reported to be possible and the international airport is open.
Qatar: no current restrictions.
