Shipping Australia does not have any information credibly pointing toward the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and we note comments by independent, commercial, maritime security consultancies that there is a low probability of Iran closing the Strait.
Speculative commentary has appeared in the general media, which appears to have been driven by financial analysts, that there are concerns that the Strait of Hormuz may become closed to shipping. We have also observed reports have appeared in various places that senior Iranian officials have reported discussions about potentially closing the Strait.
Shipping Australia laments the terrible loss of life, injuries, and suffering, in the current Israel / Iran conflict. This is a terrible human tragedy.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz important?
Hormuz is a waterway that resembles an upside-down “U” shape between the peninsula of the Omani exclave of Musandam, and Iran. The waterway is about 39km wide at its most narrow point with shipping navigation through Hormuz generally limited to two 3km wide channels. Each channel has traffic sailing one way in opposite directions (just like cars on the road). Hormuz is a vitally important waterway for the transport of large volumes of oil and gas from the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf to the Rest of the World – about 21% of global gas supplies and about 20% of global oil supplies, according to various sources (Drewry and the U.S. EIA).
Any attempt at closure of the Strait would likely have to involve deployment of naval mines, likely some kind of missile ballistic offence capability such as shore-to-ship missiles, and likely a naval blockade.
No confirmation pointing to a blockade or closure
We draw your attention to the Joint Maritime Information Centre of the Combined Maritime Forces, a 49-national naval partnerships set up to guarantee maritime security, which has repeatedly said that it has “no confirmed information pointing towards a blockade or a closure” of the Strait of Hormuz.
That, of course, has the potential to change. The JMIC adds that it is continuously monitoring the situation.
Countervailing factors
Readers may wish to note that the U.S. Fifth Fleet (an extensive, battle-ready formation that includes at least one aircraft carrier) is based in Bahrain and patrols the local waters. The U.S. Fifth Fleet is a component of U.S. Central Command, which has an Area of Responsibility including the Persian Gulf.
The publicly stated number one command priority of U.S. CentCom is the deterrence of Iran, which includes the countering of activities that would destabilise global commerce. U.S. CentCom has stated it will carry out this policy by (among other things), working through international collective maritime security arrangements such as the Combined Maritime Forces. The Combined Maritime Forces is also based in Bahrain and works to ensure collective regional maritime security in partnership with U.S. Central Command. It should be noted that the naval forces in the area have counter-mining capabilities.
Independent security analyst
Christopher Long is a director with independent security consultancy, NeptuneP2P, who gave an interview to Asharq News (an Arabic-language Saudi Arabian news company). His assessment is that, although Iran has long discussed the possibility of closing the Strait and has the potential to complicate navigation in the Strait, he does not believe that Tehran will close the Strait. There are, in his view, two reasons for this. Firstly, Iran substantially benefits from the maritime transport of crude oil through the Strait to the Rest of the world. “[The Strait of Hormuz] is a zone that benefits them [Iran] in their export operations. Therefore, if they close the Strait it will backfire on them,” Mr Long told Asharq News.
He also noted the presence of naval forces from around the world that are specifically stationed in / near the Persian Gulf specifically for the purposes of attempting to deter and counter Iran from closing the Strait. “If Iran attempts to close this Strait they will do so by deploying naval mines, primarily. The forces present in Bahrain are there to confront these chokepoints and the risks associated with naval mines”.
Historically, shipping has not been forcibly prevented from accessing the Persian Gulf
While any attacks or disruption to shipping and on innocent mariners is despicable, highly adverse to the interests of everyone, and all right-thinking persons ought to condemn such attacks, we note examples from history that demonstrate that shipping is very highly resilient to such disruption.
The Robert Strauss Centre for International Security and Law at the University of Texas has previously reviewed tanker / Hormuz security, especially with reference to the Tanker War (1981-1988) in the Persian Gulf between Iran and Iraq. The Center notes several counter-measures deployed by the ocean shipping industry.
These include deploying “grey ladies”, end-of-life tankers with little residual value that were fitted with equipment that would draw fire. Commercial ships have also travelled through the Persian Gulf by re-flagging to the United States and then travelling in a convoy system under U.S. naval escort (see Operation Earnest Will 1987-1988). In other situations, trade media have reported that freighters have sailed as close as possible to the UAE / Omani shores of the Persian Gulf and as far as possible away from the Iranian shores.
It can be very difficult to damage oil tankers – their bulk and mass give some protection. Shipping Australia has received testimony of ships under military attack from tanker sailors who sailed in the Tanker War One ex-seafarer described how he remembered looking up at belligerent helicopters flying low over his tanker and the naval aviators would throw hand grenades at the crew and onto the deck. In another case, the Iraqi Air Force bombed the Seawise Giant, an extremely large vessel with a deadweight of just under 565,000 tonnes, with two 1,000kg bombs. Although the vessel experienced fires onboard, it did not sink, and was later repaired and returned to service for a further 21 years.
Maritime historians may be interested in the comments of Martin S Navias, a teaching fellow at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London, also noted in an article for “History Today” magazine, that, “ultimately the Tanker War [the attacks on shipping by Iran and Iraq during the 1980s Gulf War] did not lead to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, nor did it significantly impact upon oil exports from the Gulf or result in sustained increases in oil prices. According to some estimates, the combined campaigns of both Iran and Iraq never disrupted more than two per cent of ships in the Gulf”.
Shipping Australia comments
Captain Melwyn Noronha formerly sailed on those waters many times in his previous profession as a seafarer. “I used to sail there during the Tanker Wars in the 1980s, and you were always hoping that the moon wasn’t out at night because the silhouette of your ship could be seen. You could become a target and you could be hit. This conflict is a truly awful and tragic situation, and we lament the loss of all innocent lives. As shipping industry representatives, our thoughts are naturally with the seafarers, who leave home and family, and put out to sea to earn a living. We hope that no commercial mariners are injured or killed during this conflict”.
