Escalation of the war in the Middle East has taken place with an attack on installations on the Iranian South Pars gas field and a subsequent retaliatory Iranian attack on the Qatari Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facility.
South Pars straddles the Qatari-Iranian Persian Gulf maritime border. Iran uses South Pars to provide domestic energy and it is one of the biggest sources of energy for that nation.
Meanwhile, Ras Laffan is widely reported to provide about 20% of the world’s Liquefied Natural Gas supply, although production has been suspended for several weeks. QatarEnergy has reported attacks on Wednesday 18 March and Thursday 19 March which have resulted in “extensive” damage.
His Excellency Qatari Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi has stated that the strikes have reduced Qatar’s LNG export capacity by 17%, will cause revenue losses of US$20 billion a year and will take three to five years to repair, impacting supply across Europe and Asia.
The attacks damaged two liquefied natural gas (LNG) producing Trains 4 and 6 totalling 12.8 million tons per annum (MTPA) of production. Train 4 is a joint venture between QatarEnergy (66%) and ExxonMobil (34%), and Train 6 is a joint venture between QatarEnergy (70%) and ExxonMobil (30%).
His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi said: “The impact is on China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium. This means that we will be compelled to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts.”
The attacks also targeted the Pearl GTL (Gas-to-Liquids) facility, a production sharing agreement operated by Shell, that converts natural gas into high-quality cleaner burning drop-in fuels and produces base oils used to make premium engine oils and lubricants, and paraffins and waxes.
Qatar reported likely production losses:
• Condensates: 18.6 million barrels which is around 24% of Qatar’s exports
• LPG: 1.281 MT which is around 13% of Qatar’s exports
• Naphtha: 0.594 MT which is around 6% of Qatar’s exports
• Sulfur: 0.18 MT which is around 6% of Qatar’s exports
• Helium: 309.54 MCFA which is around 14% of Qatar’s exports
It has also been reported that there have been missile strikes against the Saudi Arabian Red Sea terminal at Yanbu – this is the terminal at the end of a long cross-peninsular pipeline that the Saudis were using to re-route and ramp up exports so as to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; about 40 Very Large Crude Carriers were reported to be en-route to Yanbu for loading. The Yanbu situation now is currently unclear.
U.S. Department of War Update – Warthogs and Apache Attack Helicopters are being deployed
U.S. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, reports that over 7,000 targets across Iran have been struck adding that ballistic missile attacks against U.S. forces are down 90 per cent, as are one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicles. U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Air Force General Dan Caine added that U.S. military continues to attack underground storage facilities storing coastal defense cruise missiles and other support equipment, mine storage facilities, naval ammunition depots, and “afloat assets, including more than 120 vessels and 44 mine layers”.
General Caine added that the the U.S. is now flying missing further to the east, adding that the A-10 Warthog (planes) and the AH-64 Apache (helicopters) are now in action across the southern flank. This is a significant development, especially for maritime interests as both the Warthog and the Apache are complementary close air support combat units with high manoeuvrability, survivability, and are optimised for low airspeed combat. They are attack aircraft used to engage and attack forces on the ground and would be well-suited to attack small, fast, watercraft that have been reported to be used to harass commercial shipping,” General Caine said.
Hormuz
Strait of Hormuz transits remain at 95% below pre-conflict levels averaging about five ships per day according to international ship broker Clarkson. It has been widely reported that some vessels are now transiting the Strait with Iranian approval and such vessels are transiting very close to the Iranian coast. This has included Indian-linked LPG carriers. At least 20 vessels have traversed Hormuz with more than 90% reported to be eastbound, according to Clarksons.
The broker adds that excluding locally trading vessels there are about 1,100 ships of the international fleet inside the Gulf, equivalent to about 2% of the global fleet tonnage. This includes about 5% crude oil carriers, 3% product tankers, 4% of very large gas carriers and about 1% of the world containership fleet. NB – the IMO Secretary General reported 3,000 vessels inside Hormuz – the difference between the IMO Sec Gen figure and the shipbroker figure is likely to be local vessels.
Attacked ships and infrastructure
So far, since the beginning of the conflict, about 18 vessels have been attacked (excludes “near misses”) with the most recent (as reported) was a very large gas carry off the eastern coast of the UAE town of Fujairah (outside the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman. LPG carriers, box ships, product carriers, chemical tankers, a tug, two bulkers, an asphalt carrier and an oil bunkering tanker have been attacked. Most of the attacks have been long the UAE coast although there have been attacks across the Persian Gulf and in the Gulf of Oman.
Oil refineries, gas fields, ports, an LNG liquefaction terminal and oil pipelines across the region have been attacked.
About 8.5 million barrels per day of oil production (crude and condensate) have been cut, about 10% of the global supply.
Bunker prices (bunkers are the fuels consumed by cargo ships) have escalate with Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (the type typically used by ships) peaking at over USD$1,200 a tonne. A large capesize bulker would use say 60 tonnes a day.
Australian impacts
Shipping Australia understands that Australia continues to receive its fuel supply as planned and that, currently, there is no shortage**. The issues that have been reported are locally-driven and have been caused by Australians stocking up on fuel. It is reasonable to assume that, if the situation continues then there will be greater impacts. However, given the change in military tactics (Apaches, Warthogs) and the recent statement by other nations who advise they are planning to “contribute” to protecting freedom of navigation in the region, and given the ongoing escalation and attacks on production and maritime facilities, then stability and ‘no-change’ is not what’s going to happen.
From the containership perspective, about 2% of our fully laden container trade (i.e. containers with cargo in them) go to / from the Middle East. We understand that, owing to the hostilities, ships are acting to preserve the health and safety of their crews and are discharging cargo at the nearest available safe port. While few, if any, container ships are sailing near the conflict zone, some carriers are sailing to somewhat distant but land-linked ports (linked by road, typically) and are offering a sea-landbridge service to / from the Middle East. Containerised cargo to / from Europe stands at about 12% of Australia’s full containerised cargo trade and container vessels on the Asia-Europe route are likely to continue sailing around South Africa.
**NOTE: this article was published on 20 March 2026 at 16:38. Two days later, on Sunday 22 March 2026, media reports noted that the Australian Federal Energy Minister, the Hon Chris Bowen MP, had announced on Sunday morning on broadcast TV that six fuel shipments due to arrive in Australia after mid-April 2026 had been cancelled or deferred out of approximately 81 ships expected from mid-April to mid-May. He added that some had been replaced by importers and refiners with other sources. He added that the Federal Government is confident that fuel supplies will arrive largely as scheduled until mid-April and that there is as much supply in Australia now (i.e. as of Sunday 22 March 2026) as there was before the outbreak of war (which occurred on 28 February 2026). Source: Evans, J. (2026, March 22). “Six fuel ships to Australia cancelled or deferred, though gap has been filled”. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-22/six-fuel-ships-cancelled-oil-supply-iran/106483424
