Global trade rose by about US$500 billion in the first of this year despite all the uncertainty from volatility, policy changes, and geo-politics, the UN Trade & Development has said in its October 2025 briefing. Momentum was strong even into the third quarter, the briefing notes.
Goods trade increased from about 2% to 2.5% quarter over quarter, and manufacturing was the main driver of growth. That, in turn, was led by the electronics sector with strong demand for hybrid and electric vehicles identified as playing a part in the trade expansion.
Developing countries led the global trade growth and there was a rise in South-South trade; meanwhile, United States trade was weaker and “weighed on” the global figures, the UN notes.
Mixed outlook for the near future
UN Trade is bullish about the near term, arguing that global trade is “on track to surpass its 2024 record,” although it does warn of risks from shifts in trade policy and persistent conflicts.
However, the World Trade Organization is notably more gloomy.
Arguing that the global goods trade had a “strong uptick” that was driven by importers frontloading purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs, it points to weakening export orders that “suggest that this momentum may not be sustained”. The WTO added that the forward-looking new export orders index fell to 97.9 “pointing to weaker trade growth later in the year”.
In a recently released note on 7 October, the WTO advised that the growth projection has been lowered to 0.5% from 1.8%.
“Trade growth will likely slow in 2026 as the impact of the cooling global economy and new tariffs set in… Higher tariff rates and elevated trade policy uncertainty are set to eventually unwind some of the effects of earlier frontloading,” the WTO notes.
